It's that time of year again. The steady November to December flow of great movies has ended, and we're stuck with Norbit as last weekend's #1 movie at the box office. Yes, it's a sad time for us all. But never fear, for all those good movies that you were too busy to see are coming out on DVD, just in time for you to buy them before 90% don't win any Academy Awards and we all lose interest in them again. That's right, it's Oscar season, and though winning one implies next to nothing about the quality of the movie (see: Crash), everyone is swept up in the Oscar buzz about who will win and who Ellen will make fun of in that cute, sarcastic, back-handed way she always does (full disclosure: I love Ellen and am waiting patiently for the day when she says she was kidding about the whole gay thing). With about a week to go, it's time for Oscar forecasting. Though I haven't seen every movie that's nominated, I feel I am qualified to make some predictions after winning last year's Oscar pool, which I organized and added up the scores for myself. But I swear I won. For real.
Best Picture
Will win: Babel
Should win: The Departed
The Departed is by far the best movie of the year, without a doubt, no ifs, ands, or buts. But the best movie doesn't always win. In fact, it usually doesn't. Babel is unlike anything we've seen before; it's a long way from a perfect movie, and it's nowhere near as good as I¤árritu's other two films (Amores Perros and 21 Grams, both of which received Oscar nominations but no wins), but it's different enough from the other four nominees, which will split some votes, and good enough to win.
Should've been nominated: Children of Men
This was a brilliant film that isn't getting the credit it deserves. After The Departed, it's up there as one of the best of the year.
If Letters from Iwo Jima wins: I might actually go see it.
Best Director
Will win: Martin Scorsese, The Departed
We all thought he'd win with Gangs of New York. Then we were sure he'd win for The Aviator. But those movies just weren't good enough. The Departed is. It's finally Marty's year. He really deserved the Oscar a long time ago, for Taxi Driver or The Last Waltz, but after four decades of great movies, five Oscar nominations for best director, and no wins, he deserves it.
Should win: Alejandro González I¤árritu, Babel











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ummm..Mel Gibson already won an Oscar, and the world didn't end...jackass.
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